Saving So Much Time We’re Slower

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

So let me lay out a theory here that the effort to go faster with modern software can often make things slower. If you’re ready for “Steve Rants About Software,” here you go. If not, anyway, read on, trust me.

OK, let’s restate the thesis. I’m starting to think the way software makes things faster means, in time, everything runs slower.

Anyway, you’re probably used to using software for speed. This thing moves faster. This thing does a task for you. I unabashedly love spreadsheet programs, they are amazing. I’m not a patient person, so I get it.

The thing is that software (and other solutions, but I’m focusing on software) sometimes require other things to be done. You have to do a setup. Maybe you have to come up with a way to name some project demands. Perhaps there’s some extra data you have to enter to take advantage of all that super-fast software.

Sometimes, to take advantage of the speed you have to do more work. You probably see where this is going, but I’m going there anyway.

If you’re not careful, the extra work you do starts to add up. You have to check it and correct it. Choices start to interact, say you discover that your new form requires someone to sign off on it due to legal reasons. The time you save starts to get eaten up in other tasks to support being faster. You’re going faster but also going slower at the same time.

Ever check all the checkboxes, done all the stuff to make things work faster and somehow all that speed feels slower? You’re not going crazy. Well, you may be, but it’s understandable.

And all that’s extra normal work. What happens when a software update bricks your system? When a data import goes wrong? Your fast new system(s) cost time to fix as well, and know what, I’m not counting on that going well unless you’ve really run through the scenarios. Since disaster planning in software has become “figuring the SAAS system we have will always work,” I’m not exactly confident.

Thus my conclusion – past a certain point with software (and indeed, processes) your attempts to get speed end up slowing you down. Hell, in some cases, so much other work comes in that you might not need software. You would have less work without the thing that goes faster.

Again, you’re not losing your mind. Your mind just would like to get lost to get away from this.

I guarantee right now that on your job all your cool automated stuff you still go to talk to a person to work around things. You might be the person. You know why you do it – it’s faster than using the fast software.

Measuring return on investment is one thing, but measuring speed as a whole is important when you adopt new software. The value of software for speed is that everything is faster overall, you have to be careful to make sure the trade-offs are actually doing something. Otherwise the thing you sped up is faster and everything else is slowed down.

Judging by my usual online gathering of friends – a huge crowd of IT nerds – it’s starting to feel a lot slower out there.

Steven Savage

The Recovery Is The Hidden Problem

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

So right now people seem pretty worried about the US economy (yes, we still have one, in theory). AI is starting to hit predictable skids, data centers are both annoying people and not completing as fast as claimed, Iran hasn’t met a Strait they didn’t want to shut down, and so on. A lot of people are predicting some kind of crash of the stock market and the US economy.

Now I have my concerns on that, which perhaps I’ll share another time. But having been through many an economic crisis since being born in the late 60s, I have another concern – the recovery from a likely crash or severe downturn.

Namely, my concern is that there won’t be one like we’re used to. There may not really be one to speak of.

Recoveries take awhile. The 2008 crisis took five years for the stock market to recover – and the stock market isn’t the economy. The history of the 2008 crisis and its many year followup is wild, and I’m sure we all know people who didn’t recover or didn’t live long enough to recover.

This is where I get concerned about the next US downturn, which is almost certainly coming. I don’t think we’ll have the kind of recovery we’re used to, and it may be a dismal slog after a “new normal.”

Here’s why:

First, our position in the world is shot. We’re losing allies who are bypassing us for defense, technology, trade, etc. We won’t come back as fast as long as other people don’t trust us.

Second, the Iran situation has long-term impacts from the rearrangement of trade to affecting growing cycles due to fertilizer shipments. Will iran keep blockading the Strait of Hormuz (and possibly the Red Sea)? If Iran does regulate traffic under some agreement, the throughput won’t be the same. If Iran just opens up there’s still months of securing the area and clearing mines. The impacts will have repercussions for years.

Third, it’s pretty clear our stock market is propped up on a few big players. Any of those take a hit and who replaces them? For that matter, who might try to replace them and inflate values – only to make mini-crashes.

Fourth, a lot of Americans have been on the edge for awhile. They won’t have a recovery if there’s not enough to recover with. Young people already facing enormous headwinds won’t be able to get going.

Fifth, in no way do I trust our current government to do any kind of effective bailout – corrupt or otherwise! I mean I trust corrupt, but not effective. I have big problems with the money games played in response to 2008, not enough people went to jail, and we needed companies to fail while PEOPLE got supported. But there was at least some effort made – though I expect a few ham-handed efforts to keep things going.

Sixth, and finally, the US is going backwards. Science has taken a hit. We’re stuck in oil (and the people profiting from it) while the rest of the world heads for solar and wind. China and Europe are doing their thing. We’re the past.

So whatever economic crash we may see, I think the real issue will be the recovery won’t be so great. There may be no recovery to speak of, just a new normal of slower growth and less opportunities. I keep hearing Stagflation invoked, which is a flashback to my childhood and worrisome.

Sometimes it’s not the crash, it’s the recovery. And that’s where I’m even more concerned.

Steven Savage

Fighting The Last A-Hole

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

Humanity has survived for aeons, is able to inhabit any environment, take control of its own evolution. Humanity also keeps producing utter a-holes hellbent on greed, malice, and wiping out large chunks of humanity. It’s almost a testimony to the fact we’ve survived our own weird stupidity in enabling people like that. Like we somehow outlive our own dumbassery. Go, humanity.

While contemplating the a-holes in the world for reasons that I’m sure are entirely obvious, I thought of something. Maybe our problem is that we’re fighting the last a-hole.

I got this idea from watching Vladimir Putin (an a-hole) get his aging, paranoid backside handed to him by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians aren’t fighting the last war – they’re fighting war in a new way. Putin may have been pretty good at bribery and propaganda up to a point, but when he decided to shovel his military meat shield towards the Ukraine, the Ukraine took the support they got from freer nations and rethought war.

Putin may have been a modern a-hole to some extent, with his troll farms and the like, but militarily he was old school. However, having seen Kremlin talking points penetrate various Influencers, political parties, etc. Putin was thinking ahead. Just not far enough, though judging by the people I saw discounting or lauding the murderous bastard, he got pretty far.

So as I often hear talk of how people lose by “fighting the last war” (as the US seems to be in danger of doing in Iran), I think we loose by figuring the next tyrant or dictator or genocidal maniac will be like the last one.

That might seem like a good bet because tyrants are incredibly predictable to a point. I’m amused that author Timothy Snyder could write On Tyranny, his quick guide to resisting tyranny, so concisely. However dictators and tyrants are in many cases the same, but smart ones are updated.

You aren’t going to get the next Hitler, because people did Hitler and that didn’t work. You will get someone like him, someone possibly inspired by him, but they won’t be the same because people learned about him. Apparently not enough to judge by the state of politics in some countries, but at least enough that “hey, someone’s doing a Hitler” alerts some resistance.

(Meanwhile, you can see a lot of media who don’t want to acknowledge dictators desperately wanting to discount it, but that’s for another rant.)

For people who are pro-freedom and pro-human dignity we have to act like an immune system. We don’t just learn from the last dictator but need to identify “similar infections” and rally to stop them. We need to be ears open for when history rhymes because it never repeats. We need to be ready to predict the next a-hole.

Of course what we really need to do is focus on freedom and functional, healthy, responsive societies a-holes can’t twist, turn, and exploit. But that too is for another essay, perhaps.

We need to keep an eye out for a-holes, updated or not. We’re the immune system, and maybe that gives us space to build a freer world that’s harder for a-holes.

Steven Savage