Economics

The Un-Measurable Cost of Bullshit

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

As my regular readers are painfully aware, I feel a lot of the world is awash in bullshit, and the technology world triply so. We’re sold products we don’t need, that don’t do what we want, from companies who will then collapse and be sold off for parts. Meanwhile too much of the media celebrates innovations that basically burn money and forests while delivering nothing but stock prices. And if you think you know what I’m talking about, once again don’t be so sure, I have a long list of grievances.

And I wonder how much does this stuff cost us? I’m not just talking money, but time, social damage, environmental damage, and having to clean up after it all falls apart.

I think it’s hard to measure because a lot of the economic bullshit is now a loop.

Investors invest in each other and the people they know to get a return, even if a service won’t provide anything. Media breathlessly starts a hype cycle about nothing, and will do it again weeks or months later having learned little. Bookkeeping flummery keeps the real costs off of the books and out of view. Environmental impact is exported. There’s a giant cycle that occupies a lot of time and resources to keep people from asking what time and resources are being consumed.

And we do it all over again repeatedly and more rapidly.

We can’t measure costs of all this meaninglessness as it moves too fast, doesn’t have enough data, because of made-up data, and because we’ll do it all again anyway. We know there’s bullshit in the economy, but we can’t penetrate the veil of it to figure what it costs us until the bill becomes due the hard way.

It’s enough to make you wish you could yell “stop” and we’d all just stop inventing stuff for ten years so we could pick up the pieces and see how much people were lying. And yes, I thought about how long that freeze should be.

I have the unsettling feeling that an enormous amount of our economy is waste that yields little more than line go up for a tiny amount of people. But I’d like if we could pause and find out.

Pause voluntarily, that is. Judging by the way our climate is changing, we’re gonna get a pretty hard pause involuntarily.

Steven Savage

The Scale of Victims

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

It sure seems there’s a lot of IT security breaches lately. In fact, it’s to the point where I can’t remember which one inspired this column. It’s probably just as well, since you can map whatever horrific violation of privacy you heard of this week onto this column. There, I’ve sort of written something relatively timeless because people are dumb.

One of the things I wonder about is why more CTOs, CIOs, and so forth aren’t being taken to court, followed by reporters, and in general held freaking responsible for their companies having lousy security. Yes there’s all sorts of shielding from accountability, but you think we’d see some effort, but I think one thing protecting them is that the company is seen mostly as a victim.

I’d argue that’s technically right, the companies were attacked by some external force. But treating companies as equivalent of people ignores their responsibilities. People, individual moral agents, can be victims, but corporations are not people and not moral agents, and treating them as victims like people lets them out of responsibilities. Sorry, Mitt Romney.

Think about a person who is a victim of a crime. Though people often try to blame victims, those blamers are usually both wrong and assholes (and sometimes justifying their own crimes). A person who is victim of a crime is a victim in that someone else chose to behave criminally.. Even if said victim enhanced their own danger it doesn’t remove the culpability of the criminal, who violated social and legal norms that people are expected to follow.

When I watch people shrug as corporation after corporation has customer records placed on the dark web, I see comments about how crappy their security is, but it doesn’t seem particularly judgmental. This impresses me as an echo of the don’t-blame-the-victim mentality.

But corporations are groups of people – organizations. That organization makes certain agreements and promises in order to exist. Security of data is, obviously, part of them. If one’s data is breached, despite the criminals actions, you also take responsibility as you are responsible. If you’re leadership, you should be on the line because you made a promise that this probably won’t happen.

Organizations are about promises and responsibility. Screw that up, and no matter why, someone has to pay as your failure hurt the organization and the people involved. You don’t have to restrain yourself on going after the people who did the actual crime, but corporations have made promises. If you can’t keep them, you’ve got a problem.

In fact, I’d say a corporation that suffers a data breach or similar failure must be investigated to see if it violated social norms. If the corporation made guarantees it could not and did not keep, if good faith effort was not made, the corporation was responsible. There is a failure of the company that echoes the action of the criminal, it too violated norms.

Of course we all know that if we at all ask this we’ll find a lot of corporations have done terrible at security. It’s all cost cutting, half-assed integration, and big bonuses. A lot of companies, if they were really investigated for security problems, would be locked down and sold off for being terrible.

(And yes, I work in Healthcare, which has insanely strict rules, but everyone should for everything, and we remember that these rules protect people.)

We don’t need to act like corporations are victims like people. If they can’t keep their promises, if security violations reveal they’ve done a poor job of protecting people, they’re part of the problem. Some of them should pay. Some shouldn’t exist.

Steven Savage

Climate Change as Investment Opportunity

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As I look at weather predictions, I’m obviously concerned about climate change. I have a bugout plan if it’s necessary to move to avoid severe climate issues. I work in an area (medicine) where climate change affects everything from what patients you see to worries about new diseases to supply change disruptions. Also I’m pretty damn upset with people dying because we were greedy and stupid.

But one thing I think we should be ready for is that people are going to see Fighting Climate Change as an investment opportunity.

Just look at the way money got poured into AI/LLMs in 2023-2024 (when this was written). Take a look at investment fads as people seek the latest thing (and a quick payout). I’ve sometimes wondered when we see the next big economic bubble pop, and other times I wonder if we’ve got so many bubbles popping all the time but don’t notice as the money is already moving on.

That leads me to climate change. Because that’s not just a crisis, but also solving the crisis is going to be seen by some as an opportunity. If you can help people navigate climate change, then someone is probably going to desperately hand you cash – probably a government or ten.

But there’s more! People will want a fast solution to climate change, or at least something that gets them re-elected or brings in cash. That means people will propose fast solutions to climate change problems, and many of those sound high-tech and cool, and that will have many people interested.

Geohacking is going to definitely get attention. Carbon fixation and atmospheric scrubbing is going to get a look. There will also probably be assorted insane plots and suggestions. At least one moron will try to find a way to move entire cities underground or something.

All of these are cool and promise fast (well on some scales) solutions. People love that.

Do I expect this to help climate change? On the whole, no. It’ll just be another investment opportunity, a chance for scammers, and a hope for an easy solution. Climate change is a larger systemic issue and it won’t be solved easily, even if you can safely hack the atmosphere.

Instead I expect it to create scams, mistakes, errors, possibly even disasters. People will smell money, people will see potential stock increases, and that will bring in money and people who want a profit. It will also result in eventual collapse and people moving on to other markets.

It’s my hope that this inevitable scammy, inflate-the-stock type crap is limited and controlled. It might even let us drive real solutions. But there’s going to be all sorts of opportunism in fighting climate change, and we have to be ready for it.

. . . and that is a depressing set of words to write.

Steven Savage