News and Analysis

Greece Leaving The Euro?

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OK I’ll put on my Robe and Economist’s Hat and note we’ve got a nice article here on what happens if Greece leaves the euro – or gets kicked out.  Basic result is it hurts, but also people pull money out of other troubled Euro countries, probably putting it into Germany.  Most of this is due to one of Paul Krugman’s predictions, which people tend to listen to.

I’m feeling Krugman is actually too negative on how this could play out (it’s summarized at the article), but it’s still going to end badly for someone(s).  The real question is how the pain is spread out and which politicians want to watch things go to hell on their watch.  In short, I can see things being drawn out in the hope of a soft landing that pushes these possible scenareos out into the future, it’s just that the question of “can we kick people out of/do we leave the euro” is going to come up eventually.

This is made further complicate by the Greek political situation, which I have had trouble figuring out for years.  I’m not exactly sympathetic to Greece’s situation, let’s put it that way, though I’m anti-Austerity.

What this means for us in the U.S. is that the world economy, at any time, could have some nasty shakeup as the Euro kicks people out, gets left, new austerity measures go into place, politics change, etc.  I’m not sure what role the U.S. is taking, if any, to try and sort this mess out – it’d be very useful to do some digging.

So U.S. recovery aside and other hope, we’ve still got a big chunk of the world having economic problems.  That, in short, could mess things up for everyone else, us included.

Oh, and Canada.  Hey guys.

– Steven Savage

 

A Cold And Rational Analysis of 3D Printing

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So I have seen a 3D printer in action when my friend Doug got one.  I have speculated on the impact of these devices economically, professionally, and for geek culture.  I can say, after experiencing one that one of my major conclusion is that it is REALLY FREAKIN’ COOL.

My friend got a Replicator (http://store.makerbot.com/replicator-404.html) from MakerBot (http://www.makerbot.com/), and has been using it for about two weeks.  Having seen it in action, I have to say that you don’t really “get” 3D printing until you see it work, smell the plastic, worry the cats are going to play with the printer, and hold the results in your hands.

There’s something visceral about the experience when you’re there.  My friend went to Thingiverse (http://www.thingiverse.com/) to get some designs and began printing them, specifically a Heart Gears (http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:12208) for Mother’s day.  He had printed some of it when I came to visit, and throughout the evening, he continued to print and assemble parts (this is not exactly fast).  Then, in the end, it was done, from image to reality.

And then, I “got it.”

The 3D printer is not a “thing” it is the end result of several phenomena coming together.  Yes, it’s 3D printing technology, (specifically a guided nozzle spinning out plastic thread from a loop).  The printer is also something that connects easily to a computer.  It runs software that uses common formats that many people can create.  These files can be posted anywhere, and there are already sites with plenty of them.

It all came together with me holding a gift for Mother’s Day that had come out of a roll of plastic thread, a website, and an odd gizmo.

This is powerful.

It’s not something people are going to “get” easily until they see it.  When people do see items made, when they perceive the power of 3D printing, then it’s going to be very real to them.  I’m testimony to that (I’m fighting the urge to look for a spare $1750 already).

3D Printing already has enough motion that it’s more a matter of time for it to take off.  A few things that could accelerate it (and that’s both a warning and a hint):

  • Prominent use on television.
  • Displays in stores like Best Buy or Fry’s that show it’s power.
  • Appearances at large convention events (hint, hint).
  • Any prominent media mention (I already saw this in the news today).

People making 3D printers with a bit of work could easily make a craze.

You may be skeptical, but when you see it work . . . it’s hard to describe.

However a few things are also needed for the technology:

  • The tech I’ve seen is pretty friendly, but still on a “hobbyist” level – you need to have some level of aptitude to get it.  Easier-to-use tech is needed.
  • Better tutorials would be useful.
  • Price.  Trust me, the Replicatior is drop-dead amazing, but it’s still hard to justify $1750, though trust me I am trying.  Other printers are more costly, though some come as kits (which, trust me, won’t go mainstream).

Still, I am convinced – 3D printing will have its time.  I’ve seen the future, and it smells of plastic and moves in a way that really distracts cats.

– Steven Savage

Microsoft’s Future Is Dual?

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I won’t even try to sum up this great article on why Microsoft is in trouble.  Go read it yourself.

Anyway this article got me thinking on Microsoft’s strange mixture of effectiveness (the XBox) and meandering (where IS Office for iPad?).  The more I analyzed it, the more I came to an interesting conclusion: Microsoft’s best future is two futures.

First, Microsoft has the XBox, which is, frankly, a great machine.  It’s my current gaming console and it’s a solid product that really delivers.  Microsoft HAS won in console entertainment.  They should focus on entertainment.

They also make a bunch of money via Microsoft Office, if only due to sheer legacy usage.  They could leverage that as well.  They could focus on office products (and say what you will, but I think Excel is one of their triumphs).

I’m thinking Microsoft’s future is split straight down the middle.  They’re the serious office software people, AND the entertainment people.  Perhaps that’s why Microsoft does strange things or gets entangled in odd ventures, perhaps that’s why acquisitions aren’t always leveraged – Microsoft hasn’t acknowledged that it has two futures in one.

Plus, let me add if they do straighten this out, they’ll be a hell of a powerhouse.  For that matter, imagine an XBox with productivity tool options . . .

– Steven Savage