Politics

So What’s After Trump?

by

(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tum

I think Trump is going to loose the election in 2016.  I give it a small chance that he won’t even get the Republican nomination if the Republican convention turns to chaos; it’d give some insiders a chance to derail him.  The media may freak out as he gets closer to the nomination (or the election) and do it’s job. This far aside, what happens after Trump?

That’s something I’m having a hard time conjuring a vision for.  There’s bits and pieces there, but no picture, like a puzzle or a shredded photo.

Trump Won’t Loose Well: He doesn’t know how to loose.  Unless he is utterly defeated and humiliated (which would require some kind of massive meltdown/failure that media and Republicans follow up on), he’s not going to actually quit.  He’ll threaten, bring lawsuits, possible found his own media empire (as some speculate he plans to).  He’ll be around.

(This is probably why it’d be good for the Republicans to try and ditch him if they can, it derails him before a melt down as the nominee.)

He’s Got Angry Followers: Enough said.  I’m honestly nervous about what’ll happen in Cleveland, though I assume my worries are overblown – until the Dallas debacle.  But these are people who won’t react well to his loss, and will probably back him as he raises hell after losing – check out this guy.

The Republicans Are In A Bind: We may blame them for Trump (I do), but the party really has neither the process nor leadership to extract themselves from Trump.  They can’t extract themselves from his followers, who are the Southern Strategy come home to roost.  They party is also facing dismal demographic problems on top of many states where modern Republican philosophy has failed.  There’s no there in there.

The Republicans Have A Trust Problem: Trump represents a massive black eye to the party.  How many people have decided not just #NeverTrump but #NeverRepublican?  The Republicans are in a loose-loose situation here – image problems, a base that compounds them.

The Media Are Clueless: The Media are clueless, and honestly we’ve been failed by any news show that doesn’t have a former Daily Show correspondent on it.  I can see the media finally digging into Trump’s past – I can’t see them handling a real public meltdown of a major figure. When Trump looses, and likely goes on a tantrum/rampage they news isn’t going to be sure how to handle it.  They’re going to look stupid – well stupider.

(I sometimes toy with suggesting that Trump is the invention of a liberal media trying to destroy the Republicans.  Except by now a small part of me sees this is kind of true.)

The vague image I see in these facets is of an angry Trump lashing out after a loss, refusing to give in, threatening lawsuits and worse, and followers likely to turn violent.  I then imagine a Republican Part and a Media simply unable to know what to do, with disjointed responses and happy-face reporting over dismal truth.

I certainly can’t see Republicans recovering.  I can’t see respect for the media returning.  I’m not sure a third party will come of this, but the Trump forces will be there.

What I can see, a ray of light perhaps, is this is the time people can rise up and be the adults in the room.  I do see a bit of an opportunity, albeit a dismal one brought on by something that never should have happened.

Sadly I’m more sure of the darkness than the light right now.

– Steve

Trump Voters: Left Behind

by

(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tumblr)

Over at Mahablog, the proprietor does an in depth and painfully thought-provoking roundup of the question of “how we ended up with Trump.”   I don’t always agree with the poster, but she’s got good points.

Going through several conflicting opinions, here conclusions are rather painful:

  1. Elites in both parties don’t get the Angry White (mostly male) voters.
  2. The parties are now split (ala Zach Carter) between a sneering Republican aristocracy and a smirking Liberal meritocracy.
  3. The Angry White Male is sort of a trope we drag around without exploring it.
  4. The media (and a lot of us) haven’t done a thing to solve these problems in a long time. Try, decades.

I can easily agree on #1, #3, and #4. But I also agree on #2 more than I’m comfortable with, as I’ve touched on on my previous essay on Trump. It seems the elites of both parties, and indeed a lot of said parties who are non-elites, aren’t exactly fond of the Angry White (mostly-male) demographic.

A painful dynamic has been at work here. Republicans have swept in and taken advantage of the Angry White (mostly-male) demographic for years, from crude Southern Strategy tactics to the modern Fox news propaganda festivals. We’ve seen everything from Willie Horton to Kenyan Muslim President Obama conspiracies – with Trump it’s just been completely cut loose from any ties to reality.

But with Liberals, who’ve borne the brunt of this directed anger, I think they’re not exactly feeling charitable towards the Angry White (mostly-male) audience. It’s a little hard to care when people actively hate you because of what some schlub on talk radio said, and it’s certainly harder now that they’ve got a demagogue to follow like Trump.

So as a Liberal, I really have to wonder what we’re going to do for these people. However we may feel about them, rightly or wrongly, a lot of these folks have been just plain screwed by the economy and politics. Yes, they often voted against their own interests, but we don’t seem exactly charitable about it – and it’s hard after decades of Vince Foster conspiracies, blatant racist propaganda, and now the bizarre antics of Trump.

Unfortunately, I think we Liberals are about the only people even inclined to do anything to help. Conservatives and their elite are permanently stuck in a mixture of pandering bias and pseudo-libertarian politics to actually do anything. States with Republican governors are smoking economic ruins, yet they can’t help themselves.

I’d like to think we’ll do something. Sanders gives me some hope, though his campaign does not. Clinton has gone left (doubtlessly in pat due to Sanders’ influence) and knows how to work the system. There’s talk of raising minimum wage around the country which may help some.

But I feel like there’s not enough confronting the elephant in the room, that there’s a vanishing middle class that’s incredibly obvious, reported on constantly, and often left to rot. The Republicans don’t care at all, but we Liberals need to ask what we’re going to do.

Or what we can do. Maybe we’re afraid of either answer. Or that there isn’t one.

An Experiment in Citizenship – March 2016

by

(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com and Steve’s Tumblr)

Anil Dash tweeted out some suggestions on political engagement awhile ago that got me thinking. And, yes I lost the links and am too lazy to search for them as I’m busy being politically engaged.

Anyway, his rough ideas was to at least follow your representatives and write them regularly. I’m always thinking about how to be more civically engaged, and this struck a chord. I wonder often “what should we as citizens do” for our friends, family, organizations, country, and world. How should one be politically engaged – and, bluntly, what is the minimum we should expect of people.

I’m obviously a bit obsessed with the idea (I wrote a book on civic geekery). His posts have led me to this – an experiment in “projectizing” my civic engagement to find a good way to be regularly, appropriately engaged as a citizen.

So here’s what I’m doing – I challenge you to do the same.

STEP 1: Join And Follow

First, find reliable organizations that support causes you believe in, and follow them – via Twitter, newsletters, what have you. Make sure you’re getting reliable information so you’re informed.

Many of these organizations also support petitions, raise funds, do marches, etc. That gives you plenty of ways to get involved.

Oh, and if you can, actually join them and slap down that membership fee. They probably need it.  Some even have magazines.

STEP 2: Follow Your Representatives

Second, find and follow your representatives – at least on the national and state level (and try county and city). Follow them on Twitter or Facebook, get their newsletter, whatever.  Make sure you have a way to know what’s going on, and find the right web pages to write them.

STEP 3: Pay Attention

OK, so you’ve got:

  1. Organizations you follow.
  2. Your regular news feed (you have one, right)?
  3. News from your various representatives.

So you’re informed. Next . . .

STEP 4: Get active

Now simple, pay attention so you’re aware of what they’re doing, what they’re saying and what’s going on – and look for a chance to make a difference. Retweet. Sign the petition. March. Hell, take that part-time opening to do a vote drive.  Whatever.

STEP 5: Reach Out

Once a month (minimum) pick an issue you’re concerned about and write your appropriate representatives. Maybe this time it’s your Senator next time your city council. Whatever, just make sure your concerns don’t sit around in your head – go tell the people you bloody well elected what needs to be done – and be civil.

Chances are if you follow the news, you’ll quickly find things to talk about.
I’ve tried this for a month, and it’s already pretty informative. Among my findings:

  • My Representative is far, far more LGBT-right friendly than I knew.
  • Not all my state representatives are as high-tech as I expected (one guy isn’t that big on social media)
  • My new city is damned engaged in development and listens to people (I found some of that out when I dated someone from the city staff).

Also my monthly reach-out to my national reps was over North Carolina’s hideous anti-Trans/anti-LGBT laws. So I let my voice be heard on that – I got one response (sure it was boilerplate but it was something)
So, you up for this? You up to take the challenge? I challenge you to do the same thing – and blog the results, post to Facebook, whatever. Let me know when you do.

(Oh, and by the way, beyond this stuff, you should be voting and closing other forms of civic engagement like speaking or literacy programs or other stuff.  I may write more on that)

  • Steve