A Cold And Rational Analysis of 3D Printing

So I have seen a 3D printer in action when my friend Doug got one.  I have speculated on the impact of these devices economically, professionally, and for geek culture.  I can say, after experiencing one that one of my major conclusion is that it is REALLY FREAKIN’ COOL.

My friend got a Replicator (http://store.makerbot.com/replicator-404.html) from MakerBot (http://www.makerbot.com/), and has been using it for about two weeks.  Having seen it in action, I have to say that you don’t really “get” 3D printing until you see it work, smell the plastic, worry the cats are going to play with the printer, and hold the results in your hands.

There’s something visceral about the experience when you’re there.  My friend went to Thingiverse (http://www.thingiverse.com/) to get some designs and began printing them, specifically a Heart Gears (http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:12208) for Mother’s day.  He had printed some of it when I came to visit, and throughout the evening, he continued to print and assemble parts (this is not exactly fast).  Then, in the end, it was done, from image to reality.

And then, I “got it.”

The 3D printer is not a “thing” it is the end result of several phenomena coming together.  Yes, it’s 3D printing technology, (specifically a guided nozzle spinning out plastic thread from a loop).  The printer is also something that connects easily to a computer.  It runs software that uses common formats that many people can create.  These files can be posted anywhere, and there are already sites with plenty of them.

It all came together with me holding a gift for Mother’s Day that had come out of a roll of plastic thread, a website, and an odd gizmo.

This is powerful.

It’s not something people are going to “get” easily until they see it.  When people do see items made, when they perceive the power of 3D printing, then it’s going to be very real to them.  I’m testimony to that (I’m fighting the urge to look for a spare $1750 already).

3D Printing already has enough motion that it’s more a matter of time for it to take off.  A few things that could accelerate it (and that’s both a warning and a hint):

  • Prominent use on television.
  • Displays in stores like Best Buy or Fry’s that show it’s power.
  • Appearances at large convention events (hint, hint).
  • Any prominent media mention (I already saw this in the news today).

People making 3D printers with a bit of work could easily make a craze.

You may be skeptical, but when you see it work . . . it’s hard to describe.

However a few things are also needed for the technology:

  • The tech I’ve seen is pretty friendly, but still on a “hobbyist” level – you need to have some level of aptitude to get it.  Easier-to-use tech is needed.
  • Better tutorials would be useful.
  • Price.  Trust me, the Replicatior is drop-dead amazing, but it’s still hard to justify $1750, though trust me I am trying.  Other printers are more costly, though some come as kits (which, trust me, won’t go mainstream).

Still, I am convinced – 3D printing will have its time.  I’ve seen the future, and it smells of plastic and moves in a way that really distracts cats.

Steven Savage

Microsoft’s Future Is Dual?

I won’t even try to sum up this great article on why Microsoft is in trouble.  Go read it yourself.

Anyway this article got me thinking on Microsoft’s strange mixture of effectiveness (the XBox) and meandering (where IS Office for iPad?).  The more I analyzed it, the more I came to an interesting conclusion: Microsoft’s best future is two futures.

First, Microsoft has the XBox, which is, frankly, a great machine.  It’s my current gaming console and it’s a solid product that really delivers.  Microsoft HAS won in console entertainment.  They should focus on entertainment.

They also make a bunch of money via Microsoft Office, if only due to sheer legacy usage.  They could leverage that as well.  They could focus on office products (and say what you will, but I think Excel is one of their triumphs).

I’m thinking Microsoft’s future is split straight down the middle.  They’re the serious office software people, AND the entertainment people.  Perhaps that’s why Microsoft does strange things or gets entangled in odd ventures, perhaps that’s why acquisitions aren’t always leveraged – Microsoft hasn’t acknowledged that it has two futures in one.

Plus, let me add if they do straighten this out, they’ll be a hell of a powerhouse.  For that matter, imagine an XBox with productivity tool options . . .

Steven Savage

Target Douses The Kindle

Yes, Target is phasing out the Kindle in it’s stores.  Amusingly, the Nook isn’t getting the same treatment.  They site “conflict of interest.”

There is plenty of conflict of interest – Amazon is competing with big stores like Target, Wal-Mart, etc.  This is also a gutsy move as this stuff is popular, so I figure Target has very good reasons.

My takes?

  • I think Target is going to side more with Nook for now.  B&N isn’t a competitor and can be an ally.
  • Remember B&N is also allied with Microsoft.  Keep in mind what this can mean.
  • Note nothing from Wal-Mart.  I still think they might make a low-price play/deal for some media or tablet device – but something like this could mean they seek an ally (and a way to take on Amazon)?
  • This is key as it’s someone striking right back at Amazon.  Others may feel emboldened to follow.
  • I would strongly consider the chance there’s other initiatives we don’t know about.

Steven Savage