economics

The Big Score And Bad Economics

by

(Sorry for the delay in posts, been a tad busy!)

Economic policies, economic choices like careers and business plans, are of utmost importance in life.  Sun Tzu may have talked the importance of war, but I wish the guy had taken a little more time to focus on economic issues as well.  Then again he was kind of busy being brilliant.*

When one considers economic issues in a society, the most important thing is sustainability – can one maintain a functional system or even enhance it over time.   This is necessary to society as society itself is essentially a long-term thing – no long-term economics, no society as many nations have found out throughout history.  When there is no planning and cultivating of a sustainable economy (or half-baked planning constrained by ignorance, ideology, or moral faults) there is no stability, no success, and no society.

Needless to say I see great examples of bad planning and bad policy today.  Hopefully you see them, but by now fish may have no word for water.**

There are many reasons for that, but one thing I feel should be examined – and which is not examined as much as it should be – is the idea of the “Big Score.”

The “Big Score” permeates our culture and our economic culture.  It’s the lottery win, the perfect IPO release, the Big Novel that makes you famous for life.  It’s the idea of having the bit, the big victory, and then everything will be fine.  It’s the economic version of the Rapture.

In the small, the “Big Score” is believing that college degree will set you for life – and in the large it is the idea that our student loan bubble won’t hurt “us.”  In the small, the “Big Score” is the idea of the IPO that’ll make you rich forever, and in the large everyone thinking they’ll be the next Facebook before the VC pulls out.  In the small, the “Big Score” is hoping for a piddly tax break you’re convinced will jump start the economy forever, while wondering what happened to the school system.

In a way, the “Big Score” is the Winner-Take-All/Superstar effect internalized.  It’s the idea you will/can triumph and have it all fantastic forever.  You just need to get there “once”, forgetting plenty of others want to get there too.

Of course we don’t get there.  We don’t build a sustainable system, a sustainable economy, a sustainable career, a sustainable life.  We focus too much on the low-chance “Big Score” and not enough on the possibility of a sustainable economy or economic life.

Then we wonder what happened.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach.  He blogs on careers at http://www.fantopro.com/, nerd and geek culture at http://www.nerdcaliber.com/, and does a site of creative tools at http://www.seventhsanctum.com/. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/.

* I do recommend reading “The Art Of War” so you can know about what everyone pretends they read.

** I could have made an “underwater housing” joke here, but didn’t.  You’re welcome.

Watch The Prices Change

by

The president of THQ thinks we’re going to see console games get distributed like PC games (and goodbye $60 box).  Ea is going Freemium.  Even with the massive Zynga downturn, it seems that the days of the $60-box-game-in-a-store is fading away.

Of course none of us are surprised, we probably saw it coming.  My guess is that the “fade” will pick up after this Christmas, and we’ll even see some titles start going pure DLC, dropping the box they were planned for.  We’ll also see more Freemium, more “try before you buy,” and all the general confusion that follows a shift in pricing plans.

Now I expect the changes are inevitable.  Gaming is a changing industry, technology is a changing industry, the world economy is staggering like a drunken sailor of the non-fuku variety, and people want to make money.

However, these changes, despite building on existing trends, are still going to seem a bit alien and are going to have some odd effects.  So here’s Steve’s takeaways:

  • Gamestop is clearly aware of this to judge by their promotion of the Nexus 7.  They’ll have to stay on top of gaming and on top of deals, probably becoming a kind of micro-Best Buy focused on gaming and entertainment.  I think they can make it, but they’ll have to change.  Career-wise, GameStop may need some savvy business people – and if they integrate with other companies, tech people as well.
  • Best Buy is pretty much hosed anyway, but I think that a move like this will make it tougher on them IF they’re even around long enough to be affected.
  • Though downloadable is fine and acceptable to people, the entire Freemium thing is going to be weird and hard to implement.  Frankly I’m expecting another round of pricing experiments in 2013, many of which will be stupid or fail.  This is an opportunity for you econogeeks to advise companies.
  • At some point the weird Freemium pricing is going to annoy people and there will be some “scandalettes” bouncing around the gaming industry about weird charges, ripoffs, exploitation, etc.  We have that now, but this will be more public because the gaming world is getting more public.
  • Eventually gaming is going go go away from physical media, and have to really blaze new trails in pricing.  These trails will be weird enough that establishing norms will be hard, and will take time (I think Freemium and it’s ilk have about 3-5 more years to get culturally normal without becoming an Intermittent Story In Gaming).

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach for professional and potentially professional geeks, fans, and otaku. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/

Sunday Morning Geekonomics

by

Well I’m up early, had to call people for Father’s Day, and of course, check in on the economic news.

First, the Greek elections are happening – again – and this pretty much determines the fate of the country, the Euro, and the world economy.  A BBC roundup is here.

I’m not exactly enthused about the chances for this to work out – my suspicion is that everyone involved wants to keep kicking this can down the road until there’s some kind of soft landing or until the rest of the world economy picks up.  No one wants to be the one holding the bag when/if things melt down, so I’m not seeing a lot of political courage here.

Barry Ritholz has a delayed column on the housing market, and he’s got some interesting analysis.  In general the housing market seems to be depressed for awhile – he says 3-5 years, I’m betting in some areas as high as 10.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach for professional and potentially professional geeks, fans, and otaku. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/