IPO

MUST READ: Facebook and Stock Prices

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Unless you’re an econogeek like me you probably aren’t interested in the intracacies of the stock market, and even then some arcana may make your eyes glaze over.  I reccomend checking out this nice summary of why Facebook’s stock price is problematic.  It’s a grand example of how the price plunge affects the company and the issues it faces – oh and that the price will probably remain low because many activities the company may do BECAUSE of it’s issues can end up driving it down/keeping it low.

At this point we’re probably going to see all sorts of hang-wringing by “experts” who by and large, proved to be idiots, but really when you read the article you can see how counting on a high stock price was bad, and you know that we here have been pretty cynical about it.  So, no none of this should be a surprise.

Personally I hope Facebook and Zynga get people to be a lot more cautious about stock, stock options, and IPOs.  Then again it seems there’s less starry-eyed goodwill than the hideous dot-bomb era, so there is that.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach for professional and potentially professional geeks, fans, and otaku. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/

Facebook Fallout, Alarmism, and You

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Yeah, you probably saw that Paul Graham of Y Combinator is predicting dismal times for startups.  That is, until you read the content, and realize he’s simply noting that Facebook’s IPO decline could be bad for some startups and mean they have to focus differently.

Of course his rather rational statements (based indeed, on limited knowledge) are making headlines without being actually, well, discussed.

So first of all, I’d say it’s not a question of people being leery of startups, but more being more cautious with their VC.  Fine.  They should be and have been.  This is a given and was probably going to happen anyway – I’d rather it happen after an IPO drop then some huge, insane, bubble.

Secondly, yes, startups shouldn’t do stupid stuff with money.  That’s a really good thing to bring up, and it’s been said for about 13 years.  Many have listened.

No, the Facebook IPO is not the doom of Silicon Valley, or your career, or anything else.  Graham is making the point that caution is a watchword.  That’s it.

Me, I say “good.”

– Steven Savage

 

Facebook IPO, Yadda, Yadda Yadda

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OK, here’s the Facebook IPO.  It’s here.  We knew it was coming.  We’re all waiting to analyze the results, and see how many of us have been humiliated.

So first, let me go with my take on this.  Thus I am prepared for humilation.

  • I don’t see it as a long-term investment.  I’ve seen too many companies come and go – Facebook has to become “infrastructural,” and I’m not sure they’ve done it enough to maintain it.
  • Can Facebook become “infrastructural?”  Yes, but I think they’re aiming to be “everything.”
  • Facebook seems new, some of it’s not – it’s a social integration site, and that used to be called “Prodigy” and “AOL.”  That’s fine, but I’m not sure this model can quite work income-wise in the modern age.
  • I think Facebook does have enough money and energy to refocus itself to be a success and validate (or expand) it’s stock prices.  My fuzzy vision for it is a kind of integrated social services company with various income streams.
  • Facebook could “over generalize” itself to become about so much it’s not about anything.  It could then split into several business lines.  This would be interesting to watch.

Now, from around the net as of this morning:

– Steven Savage