trends

Why I’m Keep An Eye on Coinstar

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I’m keeping an eye on Coinstar because they seem to know where the money is.

Yes, it’s a lame joke that is, and I admit this, based on those green kiosks you see everywhere.  You know the ones, where you dump in that big pile of change you’ve accumulated and get a receipt of some kind (or even convert it to cards).  They’re everywhere it seems (especially out here in Silicon Valley), with that big Coinstar logo.

Not that geeky?  Well remember Coinstar is just part of Coinstar Incorporated.

Coinstar Inc.doesn’t just do those prominent Mean Green Machines though.  They do cards, e-payment kiosks, and so forth as part of their brand.  Neat stuff, sure, but you see it everywhere, right?

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Adeptus Mechanicus Panicus

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You know, when you worry life will imitate a deliberately over-the top dark science fiction game, you get a little bit philosophical.

In my case, the game is the Warhammer 40K game world, a delightfully dark setting of a grim future where humans, aliens, and psychic creations war endlessly and sell miniatures.  The setting mixes dismal, horrific, heroic, and in some cases parodic elements mocking all of its own content.  It winks and nods at you about just how crazy it can be.

In this setting, humanity is largely ignorant, part of a far-flung feudal empire.  Technology is mostly controlled by a separate organization, really almost an “internal” or allied empire, the Adeptus Mechanicus.  The Adeptus Mechanicus have their own culture, their own religion, and humanity both depends on them, yet treats them as separate – which the Mechanicus seem fine with.  They’re busy seeking knowledge and worshipping the Machine God . . .  and at that point I could go on for pages of insane detail.  Just hit up the Lexicanium.

Now the idea of humans ever letting technology out of their hands, of a separate culture controlling technology, sounds all grim and dark and b-movieish.  Except I see a less, grim, less over-the top, less miniature driven parallel being a real possibility, which concerns me.

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Poll Dancing

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Well, if you have been paying any attention to the news, you’ll see people talking about polls.  Polls this, polls that, etc.  Mostly it revolves around Nate Silver, who is being questioned about his polls showing a 75% change for Obama because . . . well I guess politics and ignorance of math.  Silver’s got a good record and doesn’t really hide anything.

Of course there has been an advantage to this in that people are paying attention to polls and asking questions about them.  The disadvantage is this seems to be pathetically political and ignorant in many cases, but at least there’s attention.

The thing is polls are inherently unsure – this is where your friend, Mr. Margin of Error comes in.  This is why people analyze them, why folks like Silver and other analysts build models and study trends.  Because yes, it is unsure, so you strive to get better.

I’m hoping as people examine polls and hear them talked about, we’ll get, on average, increased attention to how they work and how analysis works.

Sadly, I also think we’re going to see everything about polls more politicized.  Of course that could get interesting, because if you skew polls to fit a political view, you start destroying their value . . .

This is also another example of why I think math and some basic statistics/research skills are indispensable to survival.

– Steven Savage

Steven Savage is a Geek 2.0 writer, speaker, blogger, and job coach.  He blogs on careers at http://www.fantopro.com/, nerd and geek culture at http://www.nerdcaliber.com/, and does a site of creative tools at http://www.seventhsanctum.com/. He can be reached at https://www.stevensavage.com/.