Pandemic Disjunction

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

As my regular readers know, I work in medical technology and IT. It won’t surprise you that I am putting a lot of thought into Bird Flu right now and what kind of responses will be needed. Some of the responses are going to involve me and people like me so I think about it, and by that I sometimes mean panic in a very organized manner.

Now I’m not an infectious disease expert – I’m a Project Manager with a psych degree. I can’t predict the chance of this kind of thing or that or A-3 versus A-6 swaps and so on. I’m more interested how we respond and what I need to worry about to keep things running. I’ll let the medical experts tell me when to worry – well worry, more as I’m also a hypochondriac.

What can I say, I fit my job.

And since I like to talk Project Management, because it relates to my career and to current events, let me share one of my big fears about Bird Flu – what I call The Disjunction. I am very concerned that the response to Bird Flu becoming a pandemic will be a bunch of completely incoherent, disconnected responses which will make it much worse.

We’re a pretty dis-unified country in many ways. I don’t think we can have a unified response to a new pandemic. We have states fighting with and trying to show up each other, and some states basically owned by their political machines. Imagine the response to Bird Flu . . .

One state makes its own vaccines, another finds some loopy lawmaker try to outlaw 5G, one does lockdowns, another bans masks, etc. I’ve seen pretty diverse COVID responses and fluctuations among states now, and considering the amount of B.S. surrounding health these days, I expect if Bird Flu gets to pandemic level, it’ll be worse.

We’re not going to easily get to the truth considering the state of communications. Many news agencies don’t do their job, “both sides things” and of course kiss up to whoever their billionaire owners need to kiss up to. Social Media is awash in conspiracy theories easily monetized, and I don’t even know what’s going on at Meta anymore. We’re not going to have any unified viewpoint or sane, broad method of discussion – there’s no adults in the room.

Social media and quisling news will make it worse.

Speaking of, I don’t expect our “leadership” to handle it. I’ve not exactly been thrilled with the CDC for the last few years anyway. With the promise of RFK and others of his ilk as medical leaders, I’m even more cynical – even if they don’t get in they and their replacements will cause problems. I also expect assorted self-interested politicians and pundits will happily stake out their territories, rile people up with conspiracy theories, and try to take advantage of people. Oh, and I expect lots of people to try to do the right thing but it will be hard.

I think the future response to Bird Flu in the US won’t be a bad response but fifty different state responses, with multitudes of local responses, many of them conflicting. Which might not sound as bad as one unified really bad response, but it’s going to be disconnected and incoherent and that leads to its own problems.

I can see a lot of ways this breaks.

States and cities and so on that take the right measures will still have to deal with the results of others taking bad ones. Having people mask, or get vaccinated, or whatever is great, but when your neighbors are finding new ways to get infected then it reduces your efforts. We share a viral destiny here in this world, and very bad policy can reduce good policy – and that makes for other conflicts.

These disjunctions will generate confusion. Where is it safe to travel? Where do you ship things? How should a hospital respond to emergencies from places of radically different measures of protection? How will people figure out the best response when people are confused, disjointed, and of course deranged or lying?

These disjunctions and confusion will lead to conflicts. States will sue each other, sue the government, cities suing states, personal lawsuits, etc. Do you put in a travel ban on a state awash in Bird Flu? Plus there will be the crazy conspiracy theories, like folks who thought the COVID vaccine made you spread disease.

Some conflicts will doubtlessly get violent. People are primed for it. We’ve seen a lot of disinhibition in this country (which I may comment on more).

As all of this happens, we won’t have accurate numbers. One state will scrupulously measure everything, another won’t report for, I dunno, religious reasons or something. Getting a handle on the pandemic and its impact will be hard. I also expect attempts to cover numbers up by unscrupulous politicians, and you can imagine how that’ll backfire. When your next election comes up, many a politician will want to hide that pile of corpses or the failing hospitals.

Finally all these problems will be exhausting. Remember COVID? Remember that grind? Remember the wearing stupidity? Ready for it again, only with even more to wear you down because now people are primed to discuss how Ivermectin protects you from Chinese bioweapons created by a secret cabal to make you sterile so FInland can seize control? We’re ready to be dumb faster.

So if Bird Flu goes pandemic in the new few years, I don’t just expect an inappropriate federal response, I expect a disjunction among responses all over. It’ll make it harder to manage, ensure more suffering, and scar us pretty badly. Well scar us badly, again.

So me, I’ll be doing doing what I do, keeping things running – find and focus on real goals. Make sure those I work with can do real medicine. I’ll also be ready to stay informed and build my behavior around the idea a lot of people are not coordinated and many are wrong if not malicious. I’ll also be ready to deal with the disjunctions.

A lot of this will be with me buckling the hell down, trying to stay sane. Trying to survive so I can help.

And of course to say “I told you so.” But that part I hate.

I hope I’m wrong.

Steven Savage

Well Yes, They Lie

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

I’m trying to figure out why people are surprised that other people, especially powerful people, lie.

Yes, of course I’m inspired by the whole thing where people are surprised Trump suddenly backs H1B visas, or at least sounds like he does. I mean why are people surprised that politicians are lying and how do they ignore previous disappointments? People are also surprised that businesses lie to them even after buying a bunch of terrible projects. Don’t even start me on movies, where lying about quality has become an art form while the films aren’t art but so much a sad cry from help from marketing.

I’m looking at YOU, Kraven. How do you mess up “sexy chest-revealing badass hunter”?

Anyway, it seems we can complain but we keep believing the lies. I mean look how people are talking Jimmy Carter being decent like we’re surprised someone is. But then we go ahead and believe some salesman or politician who lies to our faces as it’s the right lie.

And look, I get some people lie, even good ones, especially politicians. Some folks have to keep secrets even if they’re usually terrible about. Politicians and marketers have to put some polish on some potential turds. People are gonna get lie-adjacent, and yeah we get that.

But how do we keep being surprised that people lie to us blatantly when they’ve kept doing it? Especially when they’re politicians and big companies who you’d think we wouldn’t trust, considering our constant cultural elements of “don’t trust these things.”

I think it’s because cynicism also begets faith. Which also sounds like a dynamite alt-metal album title

Anyway by aging fantasies of music aside, think about what happens when you get real cynical about people. You don’t trust anyone. You’re not sure who to count on. Mistrust is hard even when it’s warranted. It’s wearing.

So you also want to trust someone. Cynicism can, in some ways, generate trust because you want someone to help you solve the problem. When you’ve got a big enemy, you want a big friend to help you.

Mistrust breeds trust.

Of course people know this. Ever notice how a lot of conspiracy theorists afraid “of the system” also sound pretty authoritarian? They want to fight The Conspiracy by establishing something that sounds just as bad when you think about it – they just promise you’ll be on top. People trust them because so much mistrust gets sown – or they come with it.

If you ever follow any podcast about conspiracy theorists you’ll quickly see how they’re often absolutely, blatantly lying. It honestly gets tiring, and I follow these things since it’s kind of relevant to my job in IT and medicine where lots of conspiracy theories get pointed.

Ultimately we need to know how to form trust appropriately – with communities. Know who you can trust, know what real trust feels like. That lets you also evaluate other relationships, especially more distant ones like with politicians and media figures. In time they might be worth trust, but you need some real trust to avoid the trust/cynicism fluctuation – and to get together to push politicians and leaders who need some pressuring.

You ever hear people rant about how we lack community? Well, I’m leaning to believe the ranters as I get older. If we form real relationships it may help us detect ones people are using to manipulate us. A little more trust might just breed effective mistrust as we have something to believe in and something to protect.

But at least for now maybe we can be a little more suspicions – even of ourselves.

Steven Savage

The Layer of Madness

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(This column is posted at www.StevenSavage.com, Steve’s Tumblr, and Pillowfort.  Find out more at my newsletter, and all my social media at my linktr.ee)

I’ve written before how many of our leaders seem, well, insane. I’ve also discussed at annoying length about how we’re often unseriousness and irresponsible as a culture, while also plugging Ted Gioia and The Unaccountability Machine. Lately I’ve been speculating on the architecture of this madness, namely how do so many – maybe all – of our so-called leaders become completely nuts.

You know what I’m talking about even if we’re talking about different people. People with bizarre beliefs that you can’t imagine any sane person holding – and they’re in charge. So-called adults acting like aspiring teenage Instagram Influencers who have nuclear weapons. It all seems like acting, and bad acting at that – and we can’t even blame Regan anymore (well, as much).

I’m not saying leaders haven’t been completely bonkers over the aeons. I mean, we still discuss the Hapsburgs. But as I’ve done my various historical readings, it seems we’ve managed the madness without the genetic damage and a particularly pathetic kind of madness at that. I think it’s because our leaders are so abstract.

It’s like everyone is so far away. You can’t be aware of how the world works, of the impact of your work. It’s because of layers.

Think of society as layers. There’s layers of work on extraction – farming, raw materials. Layers of crafting. Layers of communications. Layers of medical work. These different layers connect and support each others, but it’s easy to forget them. For instance, I work in medical technology, but I have to recall things like where drug raw materials come from or how shipping affects us.

As we pile layers upon layers to manage society – layers of banking and politics and the likes. Each layer ads more ability to coordinate, to administer, to process – but also more ways to get abstracted or distant. That may sound like a problem, but some people like that – they don’t want to be responsible or deal with complexity.

I’m musing now that our society’s layers have become so abstract that we’ve got some “upper layers” of media and politics so merged and so abstract the people in them are entirely out of touch unless they want to be otherwise. People raised or trapped entirely in a mix of low-brow politicking, media-spheres, and whatever science fiction they consumed 30 years ago. Everyone echoing each other like a pathological message board.

We may not have the Hapsburg inbreeding, but we’ve got people living on some airy layer of our culture, totally abstract from us, mentally inbred. It’s hard not to go mad even if you don’t want to, and if you do lose your mind as a politician or media star, people will just decide you’re sane. Which of course makes you more mad.

Plus you’re so far away you’re free of responsibility and surrounded by yes-people they can insulate you from reality – but not the rest of us.

I’m not against our modern society, but I think we have to ask if all the different layers have created a unique form of “royalty” even more out of touch than legendary royalty of the past. We don’t see it as our system of media and politics amplifies their madness – and tells them what madness of ours they can take advantage of.

We need to find a way to change how the layers of our complex world connect, else we’ll keep dealing with the insanity.

Steven Savage